GA-Sen: Getting Even Tighter

Rasmussen (10/22, likely voters, 10/7 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 45 (44)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (50)

Allen Buckley (L): 1 (2)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Chambliss’ favorables: 51-43 (down from 57-37). Martin is sitting at 48-43 (from 45-38 in the previous poll).

The DSCC faces a choice here. Remarkably, we now know that a runoff will be required if no one clears 50%, and most SSP readers agree that this would disadvantage Martin (after all, the GOP legislature re-wrote this rule with their own best interests in mind).

The DSCC has been making modest expenditures in this race so far — should they go all-in right now and carpetbomb the state with anti-Chambliss ads, even if the prospect of Martin clearing 50% seems very uncertain (to say the least)? Or do they keep spending at current levels and save their firepower for a runoff?

22 thoughts on “GA-Sen: Getting Even Tighter”

  1. They should aim to be broke on election day, runoff or no.  After picking up 6-7 seats elsewhere in the country, they should have no trouble raising an extra ten million for a runoff, right?

    Plus many Obama donors who are still convinced that race is tight should be available.  The entire Democratic fundraising universe becomes available again on Nov 5th.  Obviously not everyone will jump in again, but enough of them should be reachable to cover one race in Georgia.

  2. The chance that he’s at 50%+ is still within the margin of error.  We don’t want a runoff, but we sure as hell don’t want an outright Chambliss win, no matter how close.

  3. The last Rasmussen poll notwithstanding, Chambliss is stuck a few points under 50 percent.  When a well-known incumbent can’t get over that hump this late in the game, he has problems.  

    A run-off would be a very bad situation for Democrats.  Voters will be all “changed” out, and black turnout will shrink.  Schumer should go for this right now.  And if they have to choose, this race is more winnable than Kentucky, where Lunsford has terrible favorables, and the state’s black population is under 20 percent.  

  4. could keep his turnout operation running for a few more weeks until the runoff, no?

    The Republicans might be depressed from their loss (cross fingers) and just decide not to show up.

    I think it’s becoming less, and less likely that anyone grabs a majority in November.

  5. 1.) The polling trends are all going in the right direction — movement in the last 12 days should be in Martin’s favor — and Chambliss being well under 50 is a sign that the voters may be ready to get rid of him

    2.) The question of African-American turnout could change this race. The state electorate is 29% black, in 2004 24% of voters were black — in the heavy early voting so far 36% of voters have been black. I don’t have access to Rasmussen’s internals, so I don’t know what they are calculating as the demographic characteristics of the LV model, but we have many reasons to believe that Obama will bring out a huge African-American turnout in Georgia — potentially giving Martin several more percentage points than he is polling — and potentially being the only time to get to over 50.  (Contrary to some news accounts, Obama never pulled out of Georgia completely, so there is enough of a staff and infrastructure in place that they are able to go in and play there for the last 12 days… if their GOTV is strong, it helps Martin considerably).

    3.) Payback! Sure, this is largely an emotional response, but Chambliss needs to be punished for what he did to Max Cleland. On a more political level, the DSCC needs to send the message that folks who get elected with such slimy tactics will never have a safe seat, that Democrats won’t forget.

    4.) Geography. Republican built their presidential and congressional majorities by taking over the south. If they can’t count on that base, we can keep them in the minority for a long time. Taking the Georgia seat from them would be a great piece of that, but even if the campaign comes up a bit short, it is still important to prove we are still competitive in the south — that’s why the NC, MS, VA, LA, GA and KY races are so important this year (alas, we couldn’t get stronger challengers in AL, TN and SC). Every penny spent there is part of the long term effort to change voting patterns and build a real “50 state campaign”

    5.) 60 seats. If we want to cross that symbolic barrier to make it possible to shut down right wing filibusters, we need to take advantage of every reasonable opportunity — and this one is close enough it should be.

    6.) The Libertarian is only polling 1%, so there isn’t much of a vote split going on here to hold the winner under 50% — if that is going to be the Democrat, it will be obtained through a high turnout November election, not a low turnout December run-off.

    7.) Martin is a national Democrat who can win in GA. WHile he is no raving right winger, Martin is a moderate/progressive Democrat — if our effort is both “more and better Democrats” this race fits the bill. Like Kay Hagan and Mark Warner, Martin would be a more reliable Democratic vote than would Ronnie Musgrove, David Pryor, Ben Nelson, Bruce Lundsford or— shudder– Joe Lieberman.  We need moderate southerners in our caucus more than we need conservative ones.

    8.) The money is there for the DSCC — we’re not hurting for cash, and every penny we spend on a state like GA means the RSCC/Freedom’s Watch/etc have to decide if they are going to take resources away from states like OR, MN, NH, AK, NC, KY, LA to defend this seat. Fighting here could help other Democratic Senate candidates win their races.

    It is the right thing to do… I’ve sent what I can afford to Martin, I hope the DSCC will do the same.

  6. the DSCC’s money should be used to try to lower Chambliss’ approval ratings… Tear him down now so that voters, should no one win outright, will already have a far more negative opinion of him leading into the runoff.  

  7. Funding for a run-off. Like others have said, this race will be at the epi-center of the country should it go to a runoff. Martin will have the DNC, DSCC and the Obama machine should it go in that direction.

    But we’ve got our foots on his throat and its time to go for the kill. Plus, if Buckley is getting 1% in this poll, it makes a run-off much less likely than if he were pulling in 5-6% like other polls.

  8. I’m don’t necessarily believe a run off is bad for us, but there’s no reason to back off this race.  There will be plenty of money if it goes to a runoff.  Go all out now to try to win it or at least send it to a run off.  Any hesitation, and I can easily see Chambliss winning outright.

  9. The DSCC would not be spending against however much they could spend on a runoff, they would be spending against other potential picks-up. With that in mind, they should go after GA full bore, insofar as the runoff offers at the very least a “second chance” in case Martin fails to crack 50%.

    A runoff would likely help Chambliss, but it would be a different game to play: the runoff would hinge on turnout, I would assume, and a few million to build the Democrats’ turnout operation in Georgia would help the party no matter what, especially with the Obama camp having decided against what would have been an excellent structural investment in a purpling state.

  10. should get all in now. Or they risk that Chambliss wins by 1,5% because they were saving for a runoff.

    In the 2007 special election in GA-10, James Marlow saved for a runoff and had $80.000 CoH, while loosing the 2nd place by 0,2% or something to now congressman Broun

  11. Towery on the U.S. Senate race: “The Senate race appears in my judgment either headed for a runoff or a Martin win, and here’s why I say that: over 15 percent of blacks say they still are undecided. The largest undecided segment among party affiliations are Democrats, who mirror that black percentage – 14.5 percent – and independents at 18 percent, who are leaning toward Martin by a margin of 45-33 percent. Generally speaking, at this point in a race, unless something were to turn it around, we would treat the undecideds two ways: we would either lop it off and redistribute it, or we would assign it based on the relative positions of the candidates as they stand today. Under either of those scenarios, Chambliss and Martin would be in a runoff.”

Comments are closed.